MANILA, March 24 (NNN-PNA) — The Philippine economic growth is projected to be “better” in the first quarter of the year amid El Nino phenomenon and the power crisis, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.

Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Augusto B. Santos told reporters that the economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is expected to be “better” in the first quarter of the year compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the economy grew by 1.8 percent compared to the 2.9 percent growth in the same period in 2008.

An indicator of economic performance, GDP measures the amount of goods and services produced in a country.

Year-on-year, Santos said GDP should be “much better.”

In the first quarter last year, the GDP inched up by 0.4 percent.

“[The year] 2009 was a bad year,” Santos said. In 2009, it grew by only 0.9 percent, or at the lower end of the official target range of 0.8 percent to 1.8 percent. The Philippines? growth last year was the weakest since 1998.

Santos said the effects of El Nino on agriculture output and the power shortages would be offset by strong overseas Filipino Workers remittances and rebound of exports.

“Whatever losses that El Nino brings, it may be offset by remittances and other factors,” he said.

The government earlier reported that the damage to agriculture caused by the El Niño phenomenon amounted to P8 billion as of March.

Victor Abola, economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said the economy may grow between 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent from January to March this year.

Abola attributed the growth to the election-related spending, government infrastructure spending and OFW remittances.

For the full year of 2010, Abola has accelerated its GDP projection to 4.2 percent from an earlier projection of 3.8 percent.

Santos said the government is optimistic that 2010 will improve as part of a global rebound as early signs show.

?There is a global economic rebound this year and there are good signs coming. Exports are rebounding although we have El Niño. Also, inflation is moderate,? he said.

He added that the government is still maintaining its macroeconomic targets.

The government expects the economy to grow between 2.6 percent and 3.6 percent this year.

?There may be a reduction in our agricultural output, but there will definitely be gains in other sectors,? he said.

Santos also said that the main challenge for this year is for the next administration to sustain the rebound that the country is experiencing and curtail the ballooning budget deficit.

?The challenge is to continue to boost this economic growth, to pump prime the economy, particularly with infrastructure spending. NEDA has been saying, time and again, that we have to continue our stimulus policies,? he said. — NNN-PNA

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